Prediction Test for the Two Extremely Strong Solar Storms in October 2003   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Yanqiong Xie  Fengsi Wei  Xueshang Feng  Dingkun Zhong 《Solar physics》2006,234(2):363-377

In late October and early November 2003, a series of space weather hazard events erupted in solar-terrestrial space. Aiming at two intense storm (shock) events on 28 and 29 October, this paper presents a Two-Step method, which combines synoptic analysis of space weather–`observing’ and quantitative prediction – ‘palpating’, and uses it to test predictions. In the first step, ‘observing’, on the basis of observations of the source surface magnetic field, interplanetary scintillation (IPS) and ACE spacecraft, we find that the propagation of the shock waves is asymmetric and northward relative to the normal direction of their solar sources due to the large-scale configuration of the coronal magnetic fields, and the Earth is located near the direction of the fastest speed and greatest energy of the shocks. Being two fast ejection shock events, the fast explosion of extremely high temperature and strong magnetic field, and background solar wind velocity as high as 600 and 1000 km s⁻¹, are also helpful to their rapid propagation. According to the synoptic analysis, the shock travel times can be estimated as 21 and 20 h, which are close to the observational results of 19.97 and 19.63 h, respectively. In the second step, ‘palpating’, we adopt a new membership function of the fast shock events for the ISF method. The predicted results here show that for the onset time of the geomagnetic disturbance, the relative errors between the observational and the predicted results are 1.8 and 6.7%, which are consistent with the estimated results of the first step; and for the magnetic disturbance magnitude, the relative errors between the observational and the predicted results are 4.1 and 3.1%, respectively. Furthermore, the comparison among the predicted results of our Two-Step method with those of five other prevailing methods shows that the Two-Step method is advantageous in predicting such strong shock event. It can predict not only shock arrival time, but also the magnitude of magnetic disturbance. The results of the present paper tell us that understanding the physical features of shock propagation thoroughly is of great importance in improving the prediction efficiency.  相似文献   

基于PowerBuilder的信息系统的权限控制     

罗卫敏 《成都信息工程学院学报》2004,19(2):209-213

针对信息系统安全的考虑,介绍在PowerBuilder环境中对用户权限的具体控制.  相似文献   

Isotopic evidence for holocene climatic changes in Bosten Lake, Southern Xinjiang, China     

Zhong Wei  Xiong Heigang 《中国地理科学(英文版)》1997,8(2):176-182

Based on the δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O fluctuation of lacustrine carbonate, CaCO₃ content and sporo-pollen data, a palaeoclimatic history of Bosten Lake during the Holocene has been outlined, several stages of climatic changes are divided, and the following result es are obtained: (1) Palaeoclimatic changes revealed by carbonate isotope around Bosten Lake are basically identical with that revealed by other geological records in Xinjiang. Environmental changes presented apparent Westlies Style model: during cold period, relative humidity increased, δ¹⁸O, δ¹³C and CaCO₃ appeared low; but in warm periods, the dry regime aggravated. (2) The temperature reflected by δ¹⁸O exist evident features being increase in the late period during the Holocene. Together with the δ¹³C, pollen and CaCO₃ analyses, several cold and warm phases which are of broad regional significance can be identified. The warm peaks occurred at about 11.0 ka B.P., 9.4 ka B.P., 7.5 ka B.P., 5.0 ka B.P., 3.0 ka B.P. and 2.0 ka B.P.; the cold peaks at 11.5 ka B.P., 10.5 ka B.P., 8.8 ka B.P., 5.5 ka B.P., 3.3 ka B.P., 2.2 ka B.P. and 1.5 ka B.P.. (3) Several climatic events with the nature of “abrupt climatic changes” are revealed in the periods of 11.0 ka B.P. −10.5 ka B.P., 9.4 ka B.P. −8.8 ka B.P., 5.5 ka B.P. −5.0 ka B.P. and 2.0 ka B.P. −1.5 ka B.P.. (4) The results show that carbonate isotopic record of lacustrine sediment in arid area is very sensitive to climatic changes, and may be play a very important role in understanding the features and mechanism of palaeoclimatic changes.  相似文献   

北部湾北部海上油田发现历程     

钟铿  潘其云 《南方国土资源》1997,(2)

北部湾北部海上油田的开发工作始于５０年代，６０～７０年代作了大量地质工作。改革开放后，油气勘查取得突破性进展。累计发现油气构造６个，含油面积超过４０ｋｍ２，石油地质储量约４亿ｔ，已开发油田２个，揭开我国南方油气资源开发序幕  相似文献   

彗星等离子体某些特征的讨论     

李中元  李嘉巍  段素平  陈耀  石志东 《紫金山天文台台刊》2003,(1)

本文讨论了彗星中尘埃粒子的充电机制 ,带电特性和平衡电势的变化规律 ,分析了彗星尘埃的破碎特性和临界半径 ,得出了很有意义的结果  相似文献   

南海北缘北东东向构造活动性研究     

任镇寰  任奔滔  罗振暖  陈益明  钟贻军 《大地测量与地球动力学》1996,(2)

从地形地貌特征、重磁地球物理场、深部构造与断裂构造以及地震活动、震源机制等多方面论述北东东向构造是南海北缘的主要活动构造。对于长期以来认为新华夏系北东向构造是该区主要活动构造的观点来说，这是一种新的学术思想。  相似文献   

2种亚洲龙鱼的D-Loop序列结构分析     

潘阳  白俊杰  叶星  劳海华  罗建仁  汪学杰 《广东海洋大学学报》2005,25(4):5-8

采用PCR技术对2种亚洲龙鱼的mtDNAD_Loop全序列进行扩增和测序,序列结构分析和序列同源性比对结果表明,2种亚洲龙鱼的mtDNAD_Loop在靠近5’端有3个终止相关序列TAS(Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ),靠近D_Loop的3’端有4个保守区域CSB1、CSB2、CSB3、CSB-D。在终止相关序列和保守区域之间是连续重复区域。经DNASP4.0软件分析,全序列中检测出多态位点数(S)为26,其中有17个转换,核苷酸多样性(Pi)为0.013,平均核苷酸差异数(K)为17.333。  相似文献   

湖南省农用土地的环境地质问题     

罗伟奇 《国土资源导刊(湖南)》2001,20(1):41-42

湖南省农用土地的环境地质问题主要有两种类型,一种是受成土母岩的物理性状和化学组分的影响而产生的原生环境地质问题,另一种是受人类工程-经济活动及外动力作用影响而形成的次生环境地质问题.本文就其形成机制作了探讨,并结合农业生产提出了可操作的防治措施.  相似文献   

Urban tourism research methodology     

Tao Wei  Zhong Wen-hui  Hong Yan 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2005,15(2):173-178

  相似文献   

现代天文选址中的视宁度（Ⅱ）     

仇朴章  刘忠 《天文学进展》1996,14(3):175-180

在文献」１「４ 基础上，根据近年文选址实践中提出的问题，先进一步讨论了大气相干直径和时间的的物理和意义，然后强调了自由大气湍流的天文成像效应及选址中进行研究和测量的重要性。最后对差分像运动方法测量视宁度的定标和系统误差等问题作了分析。  相似文献